NBA best bets: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves expert picks for Saturday 5/4

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Saturday, May 4, 7 p.m ET, TNT
Aaron Gordon Under 7.5 Rebounds (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

This is a showdown between divisional rivals, and I’m targeting a player prop for Aaron Gordon.

For some background regarding the Wolves’ defensive scheme, the Timberwolves used Karl-Anthony Towns on Nikola Jokić and had Rudy Gobert roam off of Gordon.

If Gobert is used as a floater when he shades off Aaron Gordon, it should impact Gordon's scoring and rebounding opportunities. Gordon can be drawn away from the rim to stretch the floor for the Nuggets on offense, and I think it’s likely that Denver uses Gordon to either defend Towns or Anthony Edwards, which could draw him out of the paint as well.

In 10 games against Gobert over the last two seasons, Gordon has averaged 12.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists. I’m looking for an under on his rebounds prop. It's a tough spot generally considering Minnesota allows the fourth-fewest rebounds per game to their opponents, and if he's being used in an effort to space the floor, those offensive boards may dry up.

His prop for Game 1 is 7.5 (-125, FanDuel), a number he's hit in only 37% of games this season and in just 20% of playoff games over the last two seasons.

Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 7.5 Rebounds

Nuggets -4.5 (FanDuel)

By Matt Moore

Top two seeds in Game 1 at home after Round 1 (so good teams beyond the heavy lines of Round 1) with more than two days rest are 56-36 ATS since 2003 (61%).

Denver with this starting lineup is 4-1 ATS in Game 1's, and overall, at home, is 33-27-1 ATS. They're just monsters at home. The Wolves will take a game to adapt to the Nuggets' play style and are coming off a series in which things came easy for them. The Nuggets struggled through the Lakers series, giving them a better playoff adversity introduction.

Less than two possessions is good value for the champs.

Pick: Nuggets -4.5

Under 207.5 (FanDuel)

By Matt Moore

When the Nuggets have their intended starting lineup at home, the under is 34-27 going back to last season (55%) and 32-21 against teams over .500, with a -4.6 differential vs. the total.

The Nuggets are an elite offensive team but not as much of an elite offense as last season. They are, however, a top-10 defense. These teams have a high level of familiarity with each other. They've played eight regular-season games and five playoff games over the past 18 months.

The Wolves employ the Nuggets' former GM and assistant coach as well as former backup point guard Monte Morris. The Nuggets have the Wolves' former head coach (Ryan Saunders) on their staff.

This series projects much more as a slog and heavyweight battle of haymkers than a fluid game. Expect physicality and fouls, which can increase the total but disrupt game flow and allow two very good halfcourt defenses to set. I'll play the under in a slobberknocker-style game.

Pick: Under 207.5

Timberwolves 1H +2.5 (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Some of my homies here are really worried about the Denver Nuggets in this matchup, and rightfully so.

I think Denver wins this series, because I haven't bet it. Part of me hopes Minnesota wins Game 1 to see what Denver's series number will be afterward.

But ultimately, Denver trailed the Lakers in all five games at halftime during Round 1.

Minnesota is poised to be a defensive problem in this series, and I think they at least cover in the first half if not lead outright. The only reason I won't take them for the game is that Denver's fourth-quarter execution is just exceptional, and is the big reason I'd still back them over Minnesota long-term.

But I expect this to be a deep series, with Minnesota building early leads built in to the experience.

Pick: Timberwolves 1H +2.5

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 7.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Matt Moore

NAW averaged five points in 23 minutes per game vs. Denver this season. His per-36 rate is 7.8, just above this mark. Alexander-Walker tends to level up and be more necessary vs. Denver.

He played more vs. the Nuggets last season with Jaden McDaniels out, but he'll get a long run in this series as well for both defense on Jamal Murray and as a floor spacer. In particular, the Nuggets' defensive scheme can give up corner 3-pointers in moderate volume if you hit the right triggers, and the Wolves should create those.

I expect Alexander-Walker to play more as the series progresses and McDaniels to shift to more of a roaming off-ball role. Murray doesn't create a lot of fouls, so that's not a concern. Combined with his ability to attack a weak Denver bench unit in his backup minutes, and I like the over here with an alt play at 9.5 (+160, Bet365).

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 7.5 Points