NBA best bets: 6 Picks for Knicks vs. Pacers for Fri. 5/17

Knicks vs. Pacers

Friday, May 17, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Jalen Brunson over 40.5 PA (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Knicks head to Indiana for Game 6 and all eyes will be on Jalen Brunson.

Brunson looked fresh in Game five and not hampered by the foot injury that was ailing him in games two, three, and four.

Brunson was the clear head of the snake and took an absurd 35 shots in Game 5. This was far more than any game this series; however, it aligns with his performances against the 76ers where he crushed this line and had games with 34 and 32 FGAs.

The volume is there and the Knicks have found a successful formula to get Haliburton into the action by using McBride to set ball screens for Brunson to open things up for him. While the Pacers may try to send doubles, this has not been successful. Double teams are not something Indiana has utilized much at all this season and whenever they do send doubles, Brunson and the Knicks have crushed them with the 4-3 advantage. McBride is also a better scoring threat than Precious Achiuwa which has helped Brunson’s assists. Last game, Brunson racked up 18 potential assists due to his incredible gravity and that assist ceiling can help contribute to this combo prop.

Brunson exceeded this 40.5 PA line in Games 1 and 5 – he was on pace to clear this in Game 2 but for the injury and in Games 3 and 4 he was clearly a step slow and there was the blowout.

Considering Brunson got an extra day of rest thanks to Caitlin Clark’s home debut on Thursday, I expect him to look fresh and spry while exceeding 40.5 PA.

Pick: Jalen Brunson over 40.5 PA

Knicks vs. Pacers

SAME GAME PARLAY: Jalen Brunson over 34.5 points, over 215.5, Knicks ML +185, Jalen Brunson 5+ assists, Pacers 1H ML -185 (20-1) (BetMGM)

By Matt Moore

A Buckets Podcast special!

Jalen Brunson looks healthy and has three days off thanks to Caitlin Clark's home debut. That gives an exhausted Knicks team another day to get the energy up to battle on the road. The Pacers aren't going to get better defensively; game 4 was all about the Knicks being run out of gas.

The Knicks have dominated the glass and put up numbers on the Pacers, Indiana has won with hot shooting. The Pacers tried doubling Brunson in Game 5 to disastrous results; that's completely outside of their scheme.

So we play the best player on the Knicks without an answer, in a chance to close out, the over because the Knicks and Pacers will both score, and assists on Brunson on an alt low line because he'll get those two as the Pacers double. We play Pacers 1H in front of a raucous crowd for a counter-directional play. Pacers lead at half, Knicks storm back to close out, Brunson is the hero. It's all on the table.

Pick: SAME GAME PARLAY: Jalen Brunson over 34.5 points, over 215.5, Knicks ML +185, Jalen Brunson 5+ assists, Pacers 1H ML -185 (20-1)

Knicks vs. Pacers

Jalen Brunson First Knicks Basket +200 (FanDuel)

By Braxton Reynolds

Jalen Brunson took New York's first shot in nearly half of his starts this season, which was one of the largest rates across the league. Meanwhile, he has notched the Knicks' first shot in 6 of 8 matchups against the Pacers this season.

Brunson' two-point heavy diet also bodes well for him against an Indiana squad that defends the three-point line at a high level.

Overall, +200 odds has an implied probability of about 33%. Based on his first basket usage and matchup, Brunson should theoretically comfortably clear that line.

Pick: Jalen Brunson First Knicks Basket +200

Knicks vs. Pacers

Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Pacers are in their best home-road split offensively at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and the opposite is true for New York defensively. In the 2024 playoffs, Indiana has a +11.2 Offensive Rating at home compared to the Knicks whose defense is 7.6 points per 100 possessions worse on the road.

Indiana was the best team in the league to the team total over during the regular season (49-32-2, 11.81 percent ROI), and even better at home (27-13-1, 24.66 percent ROI). In the playoffs, they’ve maintained that trend going 4-1 to the over at home.

I think we’re getting a deflated number because of the trend we’ve seen with Game 6 unders for full games, but the beauty of this bet is we could still cash it even if the full game goes under. I’ll bet on the Pacers scoring 111 or more points–something they’ve done in eight of their 11 playoff games this season.

Pick: Pacers Team Total Over 110.5

Knicks vs. Pacers

Knicks +5.5 (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I think this is going to be a close. I've even put a parlay in the action app (small sprinkle) at +338 with the Pacers first half moneyline, and the Knicks game moneyline.

I also logged the Knicks ML as a standalone bet in the Action App, but for the purposes of best bets, I'll take the Knicks to cover.

In a close game situation, which I'm projecting, I think the Knicks' sheer effort and rebounding will keep them in the game. They have a collective rebound percentage of 54 to the Pacers 46, and have out-rebounded them in every game they've won this series.

Late in games, they're able to dominate on the offensive glass, and the Pacers don't have the bodies to keep it from happening, they'd just need to make enough shots to neutralize, or hope that the Knicks miss against their subpar defense.

I took Knicks in 6, Knicks Game 1 + series and Knicks series all before this started, and I don't see a reason to hedge. If Indy wins Game 6, it'll be time to hammer the Knicks in Game 7.

Pick: Knicks +5.5

Knicks vs. Pacers

Knicks +6.5 (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The New York Knicks head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in a closeout opportunity for the Knicks while the Pacers look to extend this series and force a game seven back in New York. While we know that the eastern conference finals will start next week and the winner of this series will take on the Boston Celtics. There are still plenty of basketball to be had tonight.

One of the biggest question marks surrounding the Knicks has been the health of Jalen Brunson specifically that foot injury that he suffered in game two. In games three and four he looked a bit slow and did not have the lift on his jumpshot that he normally has and he was able to be contained by Aaron Nesmith; however, in game five Bronson exploded with a 44 point performance. I talked about the X’s and O’s a bit more in my Brunson prop, but ultimately one of the biggest swings is that the Knicks are getting an extra day of rest between game five and game six and they can thank Caitlin Clark for that because of her home debut in Indiana yesterday.

Giving a New York team that has been run ragged an extra day to rest and recover will be instrumental for them in their relentless quest to secure offensive boards and dominate on the glass.

I think this spread is too steep and the Knicks have been excellent when Brunson is healthy. He’s able to generate offense which leads to more makes. Those makes allow the Knicks to get back and set their defense rather than let Indiana run in transition. I’ll grab the points and also play some of the Moneyline.

Pick: Knicks +6.5